To whom is my professional blog addressed?
I) To small yet bold investors determined to navigate the storms of financial markets.
Gentle seas never made true navigators!
Some contemporary Phoenician trader
II) To candidates for the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation. Studying in the CFA books, watching prep-provider videos and solving problems are good to build a decent knowledge and a coherent reasoning, but real experience in the financial markets is by far better teacher. Comrade! I encourage you to open a trading account and buy some blue chip stocks to get started! Just jump into the water!
III) The classic three Fs:
FFF: Family, Friends, and Fools. With the ambition to make the last ones Fortunate of meeting me.
IV) If you are an elderly and retired, wondering what to read or watch between your bingo rounds. I propose myself as an interesting and entertaining individual to follow!
V) To prospective customers, future colleagues and potential employers interested in details of my past, my strategies, and of course my returns on investments. After all, who’s really Alfred? Is he trustworthy? To gain your trust, I must show you 1) that I abide to the Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct of the CFA Institute (just like any candidate or charter holder) and 2) that I am competent enough – to manage your hard-earned savings. I did not find better way than to publicly share my portfolio, thoughts, progress, setbacks, doubts and resolve.
Why did I start this blog? Why should it really matter to you? Is it another dull blog on Finance?
Problem #1: I have experienced the hard way how irresponsibly the Lebanese banking system (especially the Central Bank) managed the savings of a whole nation. Our greed blinded us to the underlying meaning of the irresistible ever-increasing interest rates. Then, overnight, depositors lost access to their savings and were forced to withdraw their dollars in Lebanese Pounds at lower exchange rates than the prevailing rates at supermarkets, schools and hospitals. Some privileged individuals could transfer their deposits outside Lebanon, but by definition privileged is only granted to a few. The banking sector: what was once the pride of our nation became its biggest shame!
Resolution #1: The Joker in Batman said “This city deserves a better class of criminal”, before burning a pile of stolen money from the banks. I would say this small nation deserves a better class of bankers. My modest size and role as a Relationship Manager won’t fixe the banking sector any time soon, but I have a reasonable solution for you. Yes, you, the average Lebanese, wherever you are.
I want you to invest in an informed, conscientious, and orderly manner with a small portion of your savings in the financial markets. I started this blog to show you that: If I did it, you can do it too. If I can invest some of my savings (I stress on the word “some”, not all your savings) and earn dividends on stocks, you can do it too.
How can I teach you? via this blog to show you what I do it, what I think of in a step by step presentation. I do not claim to be an expert. I claim to be an investor that is doing what he can to help you start and preserve on your journey in the financial markets and the largest set of investment opportunities.
If you are already an investor with decades of experience, it is up to you to teach us all!
Problem #2: The Greater Levant region (Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt) is experiencing the devaluation of their respective domestic currencies. As any Lebanese, I was heavily hit by the depreciation of the Lebanese Lira from August 2019 till 2023.
If your Turkish, your Lira was on continuous descent and lost 94% of its value from August 2008 to March 2024 due to unorthodox monetary policies (persistent low interest rates by the Central Bank of Turkey, despite high inflation). When your economy experiences inflation, common macroeconomic sense dictates to raise your interest rate, not lower them.
If your Syrian, the long war dragged your pound too. It is not even quoted on Google Finance, unlike all other currencies!
If your Iraqi, your Dinar abruptly fluctuated from a fixed rate another fixed rate (parallel “black” markets were certainly very active), sometimes improving the Dinar compared to all time lows. Despite all adjustments since its 2003 descent into the abyss, the Dinar lost 99% of its value. In March 2024, officially $1 = IQD 1,310.
If your Egyptian, your pound is on a frustrating downward trend since 2008, and lost 89% of its value from August 2008 till March 2024. Fix rates are being set with the US dollar, but most of the fixed rates across years were depreciations.
The Jordanian Dinar is the only relatively stable currency over the last two decades.
Resolution #2: Dividends and capital gains on stocks in the US stock market (NASDAQ & NYSE) and European stock markets (Euronext Group, London Stock Market, Frankfurt Stock Market) are paid in the currencies of these respective hard currencies. These investments would provide valuable secondary sources of income to residents of the wider Levant.
I am proposing a solution that the average Levantine household can implement today. Most Levantines cannot wait for their respective governments to unite with neighbors to establish an economic and monetary union similar to that of the European Union. Despite all its flaws, the European Union has arguably benefited every single member state. The Euro is backed by almost 450 million residents. Our Levantine region has enormous potential, if only we had the political maturity and courage to engage in mutually beneficial agreements.